Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

667
FXUS64 KAMA 152321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

- Temperatures will return to the upper-80s to low-90s across most
  of the Panhandles this weekend.

- Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Sunday and
  Monday.

- Highly conditional storm chances in the far eastern Panhandles
  on Sunday. Potential for storms to become severe if they do
  form.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Currently an upper level closed low is deepening over the Dakotas.
Further south the FA is under southwest flow aloft. High clouds
are finally pushing off to the east with skies clearing from west
to east in the combined Panhandles. A secondary trough axis with
this system is progged to move into the area this evening with H5
winds ramping up to 50 to 60 kts over the northwest into SE CO
and SW KS. Consequently a closed surface is expected to develop
this afternoon leeside of the mountains. Calm winds currently
being seen will start to pick up late this afternoon into evening
to around 15 to 20 mph in the western combined Panhandles.

Tonight as the surface low treks east along southern KS winds will
gradually shift to the west with some areas in the north seeing
northwesterly winds for a little while. Near normal overnight
lows are expected tonight into tomorrow morning. With skies
starting out much clearer tomorrow, much of the area should be
able to warm a couple to 3 degrees warmer than today. West winds
should stay around 15 mph or less for Friday as well with a very
quiet but slightly warm day. Tomorrow night, light winds expected
with near normal overnight lows once again.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

For the weekend and into Monday, expecting afternoon highs around
5 to 10 degrees above normal. There after temps should become near
normal to slightly below. Otherwise, the extended forecast is
looking to be mostly quite with some of the breeziest winds on
Sunday.

If grasses were not as green as they are some critical fire
weather conditions would exist on Sunday in the northwestern
combined Panhandles. However, despite RH values tanking to near 10
percent with breezy southwest winds reaching 25 to maybe 30 mph,
critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to the
state of the fuels at this time. The other caveat for Sunday is
the chances for severe storms in the eastern combined Panhandles.
Based on the current expected track of an upper level low pressure
system that is set to be over the PacNW Sat and its associated
trough over much of the central to western CONUS, chances for
storms in the eastern combined Panhandles remain low at this time.
Current model consensus keeps the dryline further east limiting
storms in the Panhandles. Storms may still develop in the eastern
most stack, but should move into western OK quickly, leaving the
Panhandles before becoming severe. It will not be completely out
of the realm of possibility that the overall system tracks
differently with a potential westward shift of the dry line
encompassing more of the FA. Maybe only a 5 percent chance that
eastern two stacks of counties in the TX Panhandle hangs on to
Tds in the 60s. Will have to watch for trends as we go into the
weekend.

The only other thing to maybe mention is the possibility of a week
cold front for Tue that will bring some relief from warm
temperatures. Currently the NBM has a Max T in the mid to upper
70s for much of the FA Tue afternoon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be mainly out of the west at 5-15 kts with
higher gusts at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  51  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              46  81  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              46  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  83  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               53  85  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 44  82  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  49  84  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  84  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                54  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              54  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29